August 2, 2024

Markets:

U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as traders considered fresh results from Amazon and Intel. Investors also looked ahead to July’s payrolls report.

In after-hours trading, Intel cratered nearly 20% after announcing weak guidance and layoffs. Amazon slid 7% after missing the Street’s estimates on second-quarter revenue and issuing a disappointing forecast. Apple shares inched higher after a top- and bottom-line beat in the fiscal third quarter.

The recent rally in small-cap stocks may also come under threat as investors become more nervous on the broader economic outlook, added Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at EAB Investment Group. Indeed, the Russell 2000 lost 3% on Thursday, posting its worst session since February.

Friday brings a fresh set of data — and a new catalyst for stocks: July’s nonfarm payrolls. Economists polled by Dow Jones are calling for growth of 185,000 jobs, down from June’s gain of 206,000. The unemployment rate, which is especially important as traders search for signs of an impending recession, is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

Factory orders are also on deck Friday morning.

 

Portfolio:

Absolute wild session and week.  IN fact, the last 12 days have been so erratic for the markets but we see this coming to an end and smother seas ahead.  The headlines and some quotes from yesterday are pretty pathetic too now as well.  One of our favorites; "The sell-off on Thursday indicates that the market is now “wondering if the Fed is too late in transitioning monetary policy".  Wondering if the Fed is too late??  Just silly headlines of people trying to click bait.  Please silence the noise ahead and stay patient.  We are not even close to June lows yet of 5300 on the S&P.  Just think about that.  The trend still remains.  QQQ Top 10 holdings by weight; AAPL sits at the top at 9.12%, MSFT 8.54%, NVDA 6.94%. As long as AAPL holds and NVDA finds strength off of INTC weakness QQQ might put in another trend day.  Watching this closely.  We will not overreact.  It's Friday, strange things happen on Friday.  Next week the true pattern emerges from all this data, earning reports received, and Fed notes.  This will 100% happen and then we proceed.  The market has been playing the game of intra-day shakeouts over the past 6 trading days or so (excluding yesterday). That isn't a bad thing when building floors and new highs as this market continues to do throughout the year.  Should we dare break below 5290 area, the bears would have our attention and we will adjust.

No changes needed with our current holding of TSLL, ouronly open position right now.  We want to build out for end of Aug / Sep time frame and will attack this market once the trend emerges next week.  Be on high alert and ready.  Stay patient here, cannot stress this enough.