April 16, 2024

Markets:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed Tuesday, as the 30-stock benchmark looked to snap a six-day losing streak with attention turning to the latest batch of corporate earnings. Dow futures added 209 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both flickered around flat.

America’s largest companies have given Wall Street reason for optimism in the early innings of the new corporate earnings season. Of the less than 10% of S&P 500-listed firms that have reported financials, nearly four of of every five have exceeded Wall Street consensus estimates, according to FactSet.

Traders will also watch for the latest reading of housing starts and building permits on Tuesday to gain insight into the health of the housing sector. Industrial production data is also set for release before the open.

Wall Street is coming off a choppy day and those losses follow a rise in yields, with the 10-year Treasury’s topping 4.6%, its highest level going back to November.

Elsewhere, investors were concerned of escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran’s launch of missiles and drones at Israel on Saturday. The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the fear gauge, closed at its highest point since October.

Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the U.S. expects a limited response from Israel to an unprecedented air assault by Iran, reducing fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a broader regional war.

Portfolio:

We enter today's session holding set-ups in SOXL, BAC, and IBIT. Markets are running higher this morning and dominated by news events. Yesterday, news of Israel retaliating with strong force scared most. Today, we have news headlines stating: " ISRAELI ARMY SPOKESMAN: IT IS IMPOSSIBLE NOT TO RESPOND TO THE IRANIAN ATTACK, AND WE WILL ACT AT THE APPROPRIATE PLACE AND TIME – SKYNEWS ARABIA". Sunds like a much more muted response and almost backing off.

We were actually hoping to see a gap down with reversal at today's open but received this in premarket instead. Staying open minded here but the Q's really surprised most yesterday with making an intraday low rather than bouncing near a crucial area. Next level to watch on 430, 426 ,424. But I don't see us getting that low, especially with earnings coming. We are oversold now.  Oil right now is a big tell and it's refusal to go higher. A real threat would have Oil screaming higher.

Tomorrow, we receive ASML earnings and cannot wait for their report and insight into AI. That boom and cycle has been muted by what's happing between Israil and Iran. Believe this cycle now surprises most and we have a chase afterwards. Also, keep in mind what will begin towards the end of Q2. Positioning for the election cycle that take full effect in Q3. Don't forget we also have Powell today. Tru wild card that could ignite trade one side or another. Be ready today.  This selloff might be looked at the greatest point of entry for 2024.  Unless we break certain trend lines, the trend remains.