July 13, 2023

Markets:

Stock futures rose Thursday after another key inflation reading came in lighter than expected. This came after the S&P 500 closed at its highest level in over a year.

June’s producer price index report rose less than anticipated, building upon optimism from Wednesday’s consumer price index data. The PPI, which measures what wholesalers pay for goods, rose 0.1% in June. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.1% — also lower than expectations.

Stocks surged Wednesday after a cooler-than-expected June consumer price index report eased some worries that the Federal Reserve may tip the economy into a recession as it fights to bring down sticky inflation.

Odds of more Fed rate hikes in 2H fade after June inflation report
The odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again, after its next meeting on July 26, have faded on the back of Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected consumer price report for June.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate traders still see a 95% certainty that the central bank lifts its benchmark fed funds rates a quarter point, to 5.25%-5.50%, on July 26. But after that, things get dicey.

Portfolio:

Great session yesterday and we enter the new trading day holding set-ups in NIO, PTON, UPST, S, and EXEL.  We will be adding today as the queue continues to ignite.  The pain trade is on and so many continue to refuse this.  This will only get stronger as earnings are released.  Technically, monster chart and area right now.  This is just beginning….but again, many refuse to see it or believe it.  Never fight the trend of the market.