July 3, 2023

Markets:

S&P 500 futures were near flat Monday as investors looked to the start of the second half of what’s already been a stellar year on Wall Street.

Tesla shares were up 6% in the premarket after the electric vehicle maker reported delivery and production numbers that beat analysts’ expectations. Elsewhere, United shares flickered around flat as bad weather contributed to a swath of flight disruptions for the airline over the long holiday weekend.

Stocks are coming off a banner start to 2023. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed out its biggest first-half gain since 1983, surging 31.7%, while the S&P 500 jumped 15.9% for its best first-half since 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, climbing a modest 3.8% during the period.

Those gains come as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence boosted tech stocks. Recent data showing a resilient U.S. economy despite higher rates also lifted investor sentiment, easing some fears on Wall Street of a long-awaited downturn.

Investors will pore over the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global manufacturing PMI data for June Monday morning ahead of Friday’s keynote jobs report.

The U.S. stock market closes at 1 p.m. Monday ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. U.S. markets will also be closed Tuesday.

Portfolio:

We enter the new trading week, a Holiday shortened week, holding setups in SRAD, S, SOFI, EXEL, and DKNG. We expect a muted session today due to the shortened trading day and holiday tomorrow. The real price action will begin towards the end of week and early next week as traders return from summer vacation. Beyond excited for the opportunity this summer can bring and especially the election cycle set to begin in August. Technically, this market is on a launch pad and continues to build. Many refuse to want to see it and want to continue to chase that short trade. Remember what we stated is the real pain trade, the long side! It's only beginning. Be ready and for those of you in the U.S., have a beautiful Fourth of July!