March 10, 2023

Markets:

S&P 500 futures rose slightly Friday after the latest jobs report showed a smaller-than-expected wage gain and uptick in unemployment, signaling to investors that the labor market may be beginning to show signs of easing. Banks shares also tumbled again following Thursday’s sector selloff.

While February’s headline payrolls number came in above expectation, investors focused on the smaller-than-expected gain in wages in the report, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rethink getting more aggressive on rate hikes.

Treasury yields tumbled following the report, also easing pressure on stocks.

In other news, shares of SVB Financial tumbled again on Friday, down another 63% after initially plunging on plans to raise more than $2 billion in capital in a bid to offset losses from bond sales.

Traders are pricing in a roughly 63% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates by half of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in about two weeks, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors see Friday’s job report as a key driver in that decision, given the central bank’s continued focus on the strength of the labor market as a justification for rate increases.

Portfolio:

What an absolute wild session yesterday. We weathered the storm well and now ready to get after some opportunities.  Overdone and now we get to see how the markets respond today, but most importantly on Monday to start a new trading week. Friday's price action has been super weird the last several months with only the price activity into the close really queueing what could come to start a new week. Keep that in mind during your trading today. Technically, still in range and 3890 on the S&P is the hard line in the sand that we continue to use and point too these last several months. Please continue to use that.

We enter the last trading session of the week holding set-ups in SPOT, NUE, and AAPL. We might add today but really want to be super patient. Would not surprise us at all to see a breakdown a bit further on the s&p towards 3900 and then a monster rip higher. That price movement would trigger so much activity. Should we break and hold, then we quickly shift our sights for the short term. Be ready and stay nimble!