November 21, 2022

Markets:

Stock futures fell Monday ahead of another batch of retail earnings to kick off a shortened week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Disney bucked the negative trend, however, rising more than 8% after the media giant announced that Bob Iger would return as CEO, effective immediately.

Investors have been reflecting on the strength of a recent bear market rally, which kicked off earlier in the month with the October consumer price index reading and gained some steam with last week’s reading on wholesale prices.

Traders last week were hung up on messaging from Federal Reserve officials, who were less impressed with the figures and reassessed their optimism around the possibility of slowing inflation. The market will get more Fedspeak to digest when Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak Tuesday.

Cryptocurrency prices continued to slide amid pressure on the entire industry stemming from the FTX fallout. Bitcoin slumped 3.6% to trade below $16,000.

The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday should mean markets will likely be quiet Wednesday and Friday. Traders will be monitoring reports on Black Friday holiday shopping for feedback on the consumer.

Portfolio:

We enter the shortned holiday week holding set-ups in TGLS, PLTR, and AEHR.  We expect some decent swings in the market over the next two sessions as traders position themselves for the Holiday.  Historically, extremely low volume session the day before Thanksgiving as well as after.  However, this is the key week where strong seasonal trends begin to end the year.  Stay extremely patient this week, know what begins afterwards and the opportunities to ignite, for both sides of the trade.  Trend wise 3950 and then 3900 are key for the Bears.  A crack and hold above 4k on the S&P is Monster!  Right now, no mans land and patience as we wait for technical decision / direction short term.  Market does continue to fight and refuses to break lower.  It's been settling at this level on the S&P and could be readying itself for another move higher – the least expected move with everyone talking recession and pullback. Just keep that in mind.  Be on alert today and let's have a great session and week.