Daily Market Commentary

July 21, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures are higher Tuesday morning as investors look past the latest developments in the Middle East and shift their attention toward earnings season.

Earnings have gotten off to a strong start. 3M rallied more than 5% after delivering better than expected quarterly results, while General Motors gained following an earnings beat. So far, nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have exceeded earnings expectations.

Technology is leading once again, with semiconductors providing the biggest boost. SMH is up more than 3% in early trading, while MRVL, MU, and ALAB are all posting strong gains. INTC is also trading more than 5% higher ahead of its earnings report later this week.

The market's attention now turns to several major technology earnings releases, including TSLA, NOW, IBM, GOOGL, INTC, and MXL.

Portfolio:

We enter today's session holding positions in DRAM, ORCU, and NVDL. Much of the overnight strength has been driven by South Korea, with leadership once again coming from AMD and the memory space led by MU.

Key QQQ levels we are watching today:

Resistance: 711 to 712

Support: 700 to 699

Gap support: 696

Over the past several weeks we have continued to say the market would begin to look much different, and that rotation is now unfolding. The focus has shifted back toward artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and technology leadership. If earnings support the narrative, we believe the next the summer of all summers will return more than expected after the poor price action last few weeks.

This is a pivotal week for the market. Stay focused on the price action, manage risk, and be prepared to capitalize on the opportunities earnings season creates.

Be sure to utilize our Traders Hub for additional market tools and resources:

https://mtoptions.com/traders-hub/
 

July 20, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures are higher Monday morning as traders react to the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Oil was volatile overnight, but crude has since pulled back from its highs, with WTI trading around $82 per barrel and Brent near $88.

Semiconductors are leading the rebound after last week’s sharp selloff. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up more than 1%, with Micron, AMD, NXP Semiconductors, and Teradyne all posting strong early gains.

Last week was a difficult stretch for equities, especially tech. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.9%, and SMH lost nearly 9%, marking its third weekly decline in the last four weeks.

Portfolio:

We enter the new trading week holding setups in NVDL, ORCU, and TSLL. The QQQ is beginning to show signs of life again, and after the pressure we saw over the past two weeks, that is exactly what we want to see.

With a major earnings week ahead, we believe the market’s focus is about to shift back toward technology and AI leadership. The next month could present some of the best opportunities we have seen since the April-May rally.

This week is straightforward: it is all about tech earnings. Alphabet reports Thursday, and the stock once again found support at its 100-day moving average, similar to the setup we saw in June. The results will likely have a meaningful impact on META and MSFT, with investors watching cloud growth, advertising trends, and capital expenditure guidance very closely.

QQQ should offer excellent price action throughout the week, and we expect volatility to create plenty of actionable setups.

Also, make sure to check out our new Traders Hub located at our sister service MTOptions: https://mtoptions.com/traders-hub/

It includes a growing library of trading tools and market resources. The final piece of our sector rotation series will be released soon.

Be ready.  Looking for a monster week ahead in setups.

July 17, 2026

Good morning.  

We've been sitting on our hands this week just waiting.  Only holding two positions; TSLL and TQQQ.  Lets' adjust stop on TQQQ to 66.00 here.

A mega gap down could be the solution to an opportunity to go long on some of these beaten up stocks. Into OPEX today and mega earnings over the next two weeks, the market is now posiitoned for that face ripper.  But still cautious and we do not need to have the exact bottom tick.  Be ready

July 16, 2026

Markets:

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning as investors digest another round of earnings and continued weakness across the semiconductor sector.

Chip stocks are under pressure globally. Taiwan Semiconductor is lower in premarket trading despite delivering another impressive quarter that included beats on both earnings and revenue along with stronger guidance. Investors instead focused on higher capital spending plans over the next several years, leading to another post earnings selloff in a major AI leader.

The weakness extended overseas as SK Hynix dropped sharply in South Korea, weighing on semiconductor stocks across Europe and the broader technology sector.

Despite today's pullback, the broader market continues to benefit from easing inflation data and solid corporate earnings. Yesterday's softer producer price report reinforced expectations that inflation continues to cool, while strong results from major financial companies helped support confidence heading into the heart of earnings season.

This morning, investors will be watching retail sales and weekly jobless claims for additional clues on the strength of the U.S. economy and the path of interest rates.

Nvidia also continued expanding its AI ecosystem, announcing Cosmos 3 Edge, a new world model designed for robotics and vision based AI applications. The company continues to push beyond traditional AI infrastructure into physical AI, another reminder that investment across the AI landscape remains very much intact.

Portfolio:

We begin today's session holding positions in TSLL and TQQQ. 

This week's rotation has favored software and diversified technology while semiconductors have absorbed the selling pressure. That rotation has been frustrating, but we've seen this movie before. Capital rotates quickly, and leadership often shifts just as sentiment reaches its weakest point.

Netflix reports earnings after the close today, and next week earnings season accelerates with several of the market's largest companies reporting. We believe this is where leadership becomes much clearer and where some of the best opportunities of the summer begin to emerge.

One technical factor worth remembering is that Friday marks July options expiration. Dealer positioning that has helped pin the major indexes throughout much of the month begins to roll off, which often allows volatility and directional movement to expand. That could create a very different trading environment heading into next week.

The stocks we're watching most closely include MU near the 850 level, MRVL, META, and MSFT. We are also monitoring a potential short term opportunity in DELL.

Our overall outlook has not changed. We continue to follow institutional positioning, and it has kept us on the right side of the larger trend throughout this market. While the recent action has been frustrating, we believe patience will be rewarded as earnings season unfolds.

Stay patient, keep your exits in place, and be ready for updates throughout the session.
 

July 14, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures are mixed this morning as investors digest another round of earnings, higher oil prices, and the June CPI report before the opening bell.

Semiconductor stocks are bouncing back after yesterday's pullback. Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron, Teradyne, and several other chip names are trading higher in the premarket as buyers rotate back into the sector.

IBM is under pressure after reporting quarterly results, reinforcing what we've been saying for weeks. Enterprise spending continues to favor AI infrastructure over traditional software, with capital flowing toward servers, storage, memory, and semiconductors.

Markets are also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East following renewed comments from President Trump regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation data will be released before the opening bell and is expected to be today's primary market catalyst.

Portfolio:

We enter today's session holding positions in TSLL and TQQQ.

As we discussed yesterday, continue watching the 725 level on QQQ. Once that is reclaimed, we believe momentum can build quickly.

IBM's results simply reinforce the current theme. Money continues flowing into AI infrastructure while software takes a back seat. That leadership will eventually rotate, but for now we're staying focused on where institutional money is going.

This price action is so reminiscent on March of this year.  Then we all saw what we did.  Its coming!

July 13, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures fell on Monday, with chipmakers following international peers sharply lower in premarket trade, as traders weighed the latest events in the Middle East and braced for a slew of corporate earnings reports due out later in the week.

Iran responded to a fresh wave of strikes from U.S. forces over the weekend by launching an attack on American military bases in several Gulf states, deepening a standoff over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The latest exchange casts further doubt over the future of the interim peace agreement signed last month, a deal that had sought to pave the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war after 60 days of negotiations.

Iran’s strikes targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Qatar, according to the country’s state media outlets, describing them as retaliatory measures to renewed U.S. bombings.

Major U.S. banks — including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — are among the 28 S&P 500 companies set to report earnings this week. Quarterly results from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth are also on deck.

Expectations for the season are high. On average, analysts estimate that second-quarter S&P 500 profits grew by more than 23% year over year, per FactSet.

One sector to watch is tech. Specifically, whether AI can keep boosting earnings in the sector.

Portfolio:

We begin the new week with active positions in SHAZ and ONDS.

This morning's weakness is being driven more by headlines than by any meaningful change in the market's longer term outlook. While geopolitical events can certainly create short term volatility, we continue to view these pullbacks as opportunities rather than reasons to abandon the trend. As earnings season gets underway, we still believe the path of least resistance remains higher and that new summer highs are well within reach.

The earnings calendar starts to heat up tomorrow as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo report results. We'll also be closely watching names that have our attention over the next several sessions, including AEHR, ASML, Morgan Stanley, TSMC, Netflix, and GE Aerospace.

The biggest wave of earnings arrives next week, and that's where we expect market leadership to become much clearer. AI infrastructure, software, semiconductors, and technology remain the dominant themes, and history has shown that periods of uncertainty often become the foundation for the next leg higher.

From a technical perspective, the roadmap remains relatively simple. Ignore the emotional headlines and focus on the charts.

QQQ reached 726.35 on Friday, essentially matching the recent highs before pulling back, creating what looks very similar to a double top. Combined with this week's gap lower, it's not surprising to see some early selling pressure. Gap moves have a tendency to get tested, and we'd actually welcome a deeper flush toward the 713 area to fill last week's unfilled gap before the next advance begins.

For today, the 715 to 718 zone is the first area we're watching for support. As long as buyers defend that region, the broader trend remains intact. Even if we see additional weakness early in the session, our focus remains on how the market responds at support rather than reacting to the headlines.

Be ready and stay patient.  

July 10, 2026

Markets:

U.S. futures are little changed to start Friday as investors look to finish another solid week for equities. After Thursday's rally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain on pace for weekly gains, while the Dow continues to trail.

A pullback in oil prices helped improve overall market sentiment after geopolitical concerns eased. Investors have also shifted their focus back toward corporate fundamentals, with earnings season now just around the corner.

The semiconductor group may see some added attention today as SK Hynix makes its Nasdaq debut under the ticker SKHY. The listing could create some short term rotation within the memory space, although the longer term AI demand story remains firmly intact.

Overseas markets were mostly positive overnight, led by strength in South Korea, adding to the constructive tone heading into today's session.

Portfolio:

We head into the final trading day of the week holding one position in ONFS.  Monster return yesterday at the open in RAM and we needed it.

The QQQ is trading modestly lower before the open and remains between an upside gap near 723 and a downside gap around 713. With price sitting between those two levels, today's action could be more about consolidation than expansion. A slower session would be perfectly healthy following yesterday's advance.

Bitcoin continues to grind higher, providing another tailwind for crypto related names, while most other premarket movers remain relatively quiet.

Our focus is beginning to shift toward what comes next, and that is earnings season. This is one of our favorite times of the year. New leadership emerges, fresh trends develop, and momentum begins to build across sectors. We believe the next several weeks will present some outstanding opportunities as companies begin reporting.

Stay patient today.  
 

July 7, 2026

Markets:

Nasdaq-100 futures fell Tuesday, weighed down by a decline in chip stocks as investors once again appear to rotate out of names tied to artificial intelligence.

Shares of Micron were last seen 5% lower in premarket trading, with KLA, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and AMD also posting declines.

The downward pressure began in Asia-Pacific markets, after South Korea’s Kospi dropped nearly 5% following a nearly 7% drop in memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics. The company reported a big jump in second-quarter profit, though concerns about spending and demand overshadowed the increase. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index shed 0.1%.

The reaction to Samsung speaks to one of the biggest risks facing markets over the coming weeks: Q2 earnings results are likely to be quite robust.

Portfolio:

Don't get caught up in the morning noise. Market leadership is evolving, and that's exactly what we expect to see at the start of a new earnings cycle. While semiconductors are taking a breather today, it doesn't change our outlook. Capital is rotating, not disappearing, and that's an important distinction.

History has shown that some of the best opportunities come when investors overreact to short-term headlines. We welcome the volatility because it creates opportunity, and with Q2 earnings about to take center stage, we believe the market landscape could look dramatically different in just a matter of weeks.

Our current portfolio remains unchanged with positions in ONDS, SOFI, QBTS.

Keep one thing in mind: we're still operating in a bull market. Leadership always changes throughout an advancing cycle. The stocks that carried the market over the last several months don't have to lead forever. As new leaders emerge, fresh trends develop, and that's where we want to be.

This is exactly why we've been calling this the "Summer of Summers." We believe the next leg of this bull market is being built right now, even if the day-to-day action feels choppy. Earnings season has the potential to be the catalyst that gets investors looking ahead instead of behind.

Stay patient. Avoid overtrading. Let the market reveal its next leaders and when it does, we'll be ready to capitalize.  I cannot stress this enough, based on the activity under the "hood" with this market, this will feel very different soon enough.  

June 29, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures rose Monday, with tech rebounding after a tough week. Investors also weighed a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 240 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.9%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 1.2%.

Traders were keeping a close eye on U.S. tech stocks following last week’s sharp market swings across the sector.

The U.S. and Iran agreed Sunday to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz freely, following a weekend of military exchanges that threatened to derail negotiations aimed at ending their conflict.

Crude prices rose at the start of the week as traders assessed whether the pause in hostilities would hold and ease concerns over disruptions to energy supplies. International Brent oil climbed 0.67% to $72.47 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced 1.2% to $70.06.

Wall Street is coming off a mixed week marked by a rotation out of technology stocks and into other sectors.

Portfolio:

We enter this holiday-shortened week holding strong setups in QBTS, ONDS, and PENG.

Historically, July has been one of the strongest months of the year for the market and often delivers some of the best Q3 returns, especially following a weak June. As we move into a new quarter, the seasonal tailwinds and renewed momentum will be on full display!

One thing standing out this morning is the entire MAGS group is trading green. Even IGV is pushing higher, with strength across key names like PLTR and MSFT. This type of broad participation is exactly what we want to see heading into July.

The QQQ is testing the previous day’s high (PDH). A breakout here opens the door toward the 720 resistance area, with 725-729 representing the next major zone to watch. There is still a gap lower around 706 that could be filled at some point, but given the current strength in the mega-cap tech names, I do not expect that to happen today.

The global AI race continues to accelerate. South Korea is reportedly preparing to launch three major initiatives focused on semiconductors, AI data centers, and robotics. The competition to lead the next technology revolution is intensifying, and we believe this trend will continue driving growth, investment, and valuations for years to come.

Momentum is building, and the next phase of this market is just beginning.  The chop sucked the last several sessions, but July will provide a much different narrative.