April 2, 2026

Good morning MonsterTrades community!

 

Really glad we took the 20% with AAOI yesterday and waited to add anything.  Now we are ready to deploy!

Rollercoaster price action from yesterday into this morning as volatility continues to dominate the tape.

Oil continues to be a major macro driver. With U.S. oil prices now pushing above $112 per barrel, our models suggest that if these levels hold for another two months, U.S. CPI could rise toward 3.6%, marking the highest inflation level since September 2023. Just as oil and bond markets had started to stabilize, renewed geopolitical tension has pushed energy prices sharply higher again.

The situation escalated quickly. Iran’s president signaled no direct hostility toward Americans, but President Trump’s latest address shifted the tone, increasing pressure and signaling a more aggressive stance in the Iran conflict. The result was a speech that created more uncertainty than clarity, rattling markets and raising geopolitical risk with no defined timeline for resolution.

QQQ 568 remains the key line in the sand.

Scenario A: Markets overreacted to the speech and sold news that did not justify the recent Nasdaq weakness. This sets up a clean reset and backtest with 568 holding, creating a buy-the-dip opportunity into strength.

Scenario B: The recent bounce was largely mechanical and designed to trap bulls, leading to another leg lower toward the 555 area.

That is the framework for today’s session.

Stay patient, stay disciplined, and be ready to act.