April 1, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures rose on Wednesday, while oil prices declined to start the month, as hope grew that an end to the U.S.-Iran war was on the horizon.

Late Tuesday, President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that he expects the U.S. military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”

Oil prices eased following that comment. West Texas Intermediate futures shed 2% to above $98 per barrel. Brent crude futures slipped 2% to above $101.

Traders also increased positions in U.S. Treasurys, sending yields lower, on expectations that inflation will be kept in check. The benchmark 10-year
yield slipped to 4.28%. The 2-year note yield also fell to 3.766%.

Optimism around a potential end to the war sent stocks soaring on Tuesday, the final trading day of March.

Investors will get more clues on the path forward for the U.S.-Iran war Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET, with Trump set to deliver an address “to the nation to provide an important update.”

Portfolio:

We enter a new session — the first day of the month and a new quarter — holding one setup in AAOI.

The major headline for today:
President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech tonight at 9 PM ET to provide an update on the war in Iran. This is the key market-moving event and the primary wildcard in today’s session.

Yesterday’s bounce was strong and continued to build momentum throughout the day. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed a much larger move than expected — truly impressive price action. From a technical perspective, the charts suggest this move has legs and could be the beginning of the next upside phase we started pointing to last week.

That said, tonight’s address remains the biggest risk factor.

The primary concern is the possibility of ground troop deployment being announced. While we do not believe that is the likely outcome, there have been a few headlines suggesting it as a possibility. If that were announced, it could trigger a short-term selloff before the market stabilizes again. At this point, that’s the only factor causing a bit of hesitation.

For now, the focus remains on price action and headlines. By tomorrow, the overall picture should be much clearer.

One important note — the market has gapped up every day this week so far, which shows strong underlying demand and momentum.

Key levels to watch today:

Support:

578
574
Holding these levels keeps the continuation structure intact.

Resistance:

585
587
591

200 DMA:

594 (major level and likely test area soon, even if not today)

We are getting very close to full send mode on this market.  Just patience here.