March 16, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures rose on Monday as Wall Street tried to recover from another losing week, with investors monitoring oil prices and the latest developments from the U.S.-Iran war.

The moves come after the S&P 500 notched its third losing week in a row and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday. The benchmark index ended the week down 1.6%, while the Dow and Nasdaq shed about 2% and 1.3%, respectively.

Oil prices rallied last week, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Crude soared as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, has been effectively halted since the war began.

In early Monday trading, WTI crude traded close to 2% lower at around $96 a barrel. It traded above $100 per barrel overnight. Brent crude traded around the flatline at $103 a barrel.

President Donald Trump ordered on Friday strikes on Iran military assets located on Kharg Island. While the attack didn’t impact oil infrastructure, Trump said the U.S. would consider hitting those structures if Iran continues to block the Strait.

Perhaps helping sentiment a bit as the week began was a Wall Street Journal report stating that the U.S. will announce soon a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing officials.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Monday that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers pass through the Strait.

Portfolio:

We’re kicking off the new trading week with positions and setups in SPSC, ONDS, FSLY, and TALK.

There was a major headline in the AI space this morning as NBIS secured a massive $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta — another sign that the AI buildout continues at full speed.

From a technical standpoint, SPY left the bear gap open between 672.33–676.34 after fading into the close on Friday. Price also began filling the next bull gap, which remains open down to 659.03. If that level fills early, we could see a bounce develop, although ideally bulls would prefer that gap to remain open.

There is solid support for the bulls below, including gap support and a longer-term double bottom from 2025 around the 650 area. Bears look a bit stretched in the short term, so a full move down there seems unlikely right now. A more probable scenario could be a bounce from around 654, followed by a retest of the 666–670 area to potentially form a lower high.

Macro factors are still influencing the market, and it feels like participants are waiting for the next major catalyst, whether it’s developments around the Fed leadership or the upcoming midterm cycle.

That said, the falling wedge on QQQ remains intact and continues to show bullish structure as it consolidates. When the next leg higher begins, QQQ will likely lead the move once again.

By now the theme should be clear. The majority of retail traders are becoming increasingly convinced the market is headed lower, and when sentiment gets that one-sided, rallies tend to appear when the fewest people expect them.

That’s why we so often see those “hated rallies” — because most retail traders are positioned the wrong way and end up missing the move.

Don’t let that be you. The setup is building, and this is lining up very similarly to last year’s tariff-driven volatility heading into April… right before the market took off.  I hope you all see this….