March 12, 2026

Markets

Futures are under pressure again this morning as oil continues its sharp surge, driven by escalating supply disruption concerns tied to the ongoing Iran conflict.

Late Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a process expected to take roughly 120 days to deliver. The move follows comments from President Donald Trump indicating the administration would tap the reserve to help stabilize supply.

Despite that announcement, oil prices continued climbing overnight, keeping pressure on equities.

• WTI crude is up roughly 6% near $93 per barrel

• Brent crude is also up about 6% near $98, briefly touching $100

Higher energy prices are quickly reigniting inflation concerns, which is weighing on sentiment across the broader market.

Markets struggled throughout Wednesday’s session as investors remained cautious about the economic impact of rising energy costs and geopolitical tension. Oil also continued to rise even after the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels to offset supply disruptions caused by the conflict.

The situation remains extremely fluid and is clearly driving near-term market sentiment.

 

Portfolio

We enter the session holding setups in ONDS, SPSC, and TALK.

The VIX (fear gauge) sits at 25.36 (+4.66%), which signals elevated volatility. Typically when the VIX is above 20, markets tend to experience larger intraday swings and require more patience with entries.

Key themes to watch this morning:

• Oil & geopolitical tension

• Inflation concerns from energy prices

• General risk-off tone at the open

Oil briefly touched $100 again overnight as reports of escalating Iran-linked shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf circulated. That development is amplifying inflation fears and creating additional pressure across equities.

One interesting divergence developing right now is Bitcoin, which appears to be decoupling from the broader risk-off tone and beginning its own upside move. If that trend holds, it could become an early signal for risk-on trades ahead.

Technically speaking, today and tomorrow are extremely important sessions. We are watching SPY and QQQ very closely as both indices approach key technical areas.

Stay patient here. The next move is building.