February 20, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures slipped on Friday following the release of crucial economic data and ahead of a potential key ruling from the Supreme Court on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Traders received a downbeat view on growth of the U.S. economy, as gross domestic product increased 1.4% for the fourth quarter. That was far below the 2.5% gain that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated. The 4.3% advance in the third quarter sharply surpassed estimates.

Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price index report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — showed that inflation held steady in December. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE came in at 3%, in line with expectations.

Fed policymakers are divided between officials who are worried about supporting the labor market and those who are more concerned about inflation. The pace of price increases has generally trended lower, but inflation is still ahead of the central bank’s 2% mandate. Minutes from the January Fed meeting indicate that some officials will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before voting for additional interest rate cuts.

Friday may also bring a highly anticipated Supreme Court decision, as many on Wall Street expect a ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Traders mostly believe the stock market will react positively if the duties are knocked down, even with expectations the White House will use other means to reapply them at another time. The Supreme Court, which doesn’t divulge beforehand the cases it will rule on, also has decision days scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Portfolio:

The reaction this morning reinforces what we’ve been discussing we remain in a compression environment.  No changes to current positions in CIFR, NBIS, TGB, CORZ, and SD.

We continue to believe the broader market stays range-bound into NVDA earnings next week. It’s not just the indices coiling — NVDA itself has been locked in a roughly ±25% range since July 2025. Earnings next Wednesday are the likely catalyst to finally resolve this tightening structure.

There’s no edge in forcing trades into a major event like this. This consolidation is constructive. It’s healthy. And historically, extended compression leads to expansion that exceeds expectations once it breaks.

For now:

Stay patient.

Let price come to us.

Avoid chasing intraday noise.

Traders pressing every small move are getting chopped up. That’s not our game.

Our time to shift into full attack mode is coming.