December 19, 2025

Markets:

Nasdaq 100 futures rose on Friday, lifted by Oracle, as the artificial intelligence trade looks to regain its footing after recent volatility.

Nasdaq 100 futures increased 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures traded 0.1% higher. Futures  linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
dropped 22 points, or 0.1%.

In premarket trading, Oracle was a winner, with shares up more than 4% after TikTok agreed to sell its U.S. operations to a new joint venture that includes the software giant and private equity investor Silver Lake.

Stocks on Thursday climbed after a lighter-than-expected inflation reading from November’s consumer price index report and gains in the market’s tech leaders. The CPI data — which reflected a 2.7% year-over-year jump in consumer prices, lower than expected — gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2026. To be sure, some economists warned that the methodology used in the data release — which was the first CPI report since the government shutdown this fall — could lead to a reacceleration in December’s inflation report.

Shares of big-name tech stocks and chipmakers also rose throughout the day after Micron Technology gave robust guidance for revenues in the current quarter, saying that “demand is substantially higher than supply for the foreseeable future.” The results reassured investors after recent sessions were swamped with jitters over the artificial intelligence trade. Each of the Magnificent Seven stocks closed Thursday in the green.

Portfolio:

It’s always amazing how fast narratives and sentiment flip in this market. That’s exactly why we keep hammering this point home: don’t chase day-to-day swings. Trade the trend, ignore the noise. It’s not easy—price action and sentiment will test you—but it’s the only way to win consistently. Without a plan, you’re just reacting.

Think back to the last time SPY was hovering around 590, repeatedly failing to reclaim 600 for weeks—exactly like the tone we’re hearing now. Back then, the crowd was screaming “top is in” and calling for a crash. Sound familiar? Since then, SPY ripped nearly 100 points higher. Disbelief fuels rallies. Eventually, the same people who doubted it end up chasing it.

Today is especially interesting. We’re staring at what’s expected to be the largest “witching day” on record, with roughly $7.1 trillion in options tied to stocks, ETFs, and indexes expiring. Volatility today is not a surprise—it’s the natural outcome of this kind of expiration. There’s even a growing view among market insiders that the violent price action over the past two weeks was driven largely by institutional repositioning tied to this event, pushing both technicals and fundamentals to extremes. It’s a compelling theory.

We also saw real size step in yesterday. A monster late-day buyer hit the Nasdaq: 18,000 Jan 2 (W) $609/$621 call spreads in QQQ. The S&P followed suit with 40,000 Jan 2 (W) $678/$687 call spreads in SPY. Santa rally in play??

We head into today’s anticipated roller-coaster session holding setups in CONL and PATH. Stay patient and be ready. 

Let’s finish the week strong.