December 15, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures rose Monday following a mixed week on Wall Street amid a big rotation out of tech and into parts of the market trading at lower valuations. Traders also braced for a slew of U.S. economic data reports ahead this week.

Those moves come after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell last week, as Oracle and Broadcom led a rotation away from artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 lost 0.6% last week, while the Nasdaq shed 1.7%. The Dow, which is less exposed to tech and AI than the other two benchmarks, rose 1.1%.

Economic data reports could set the tone for the market in the week ahead.

November nonfarm payrolls figures are set for release Tuesday, along with October retail sales figures. These reports were delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown that took place in the fall.

The November consumer price index is due out on Thursday.

Portfolio:

Happy Monday, everyone! We’re excited about the week ahead as we begin positioning to close out 2025 and transition into 2026. We start the week holding setups in SERV, ONDS, and TSLL.

The past several weeks have been a grind, with choppy price action punishing both sides of the trade. That said, we believe this phase is nearing its end. Last week is a perfect example of why context matters. On the surface, the numbers looked ugly: the S&P finished down 63 basis points and the Nasdaq was off nearly 2%. At first glance, it felt like a late-year wobble fueled by weak post-earnings reactions in Broadcom and Oracle, combined with thinning liquidity.

But when you look beneath the surface, the market told a very different story.

Oracle provided a convenient catalyst for de-risking—particularly given crowded positioning in AI and growth—but the key takeaway wasn’t the selloff itself. It was how quickly that selling lost momentum. Credit markets remained calm, the dollar softened post-Fed instead of strengthening, volatility was sold rather than chased, and the indices never traded like they were under real stress.

This is where traders often get caught on the wrong side. Late in the year, with sentiment stretched and positioning elevated, it’s easy to assume any pullback is the start of something bigger. But markets that are truly rolling over don’t absorb pressure this smoothly. What we saw last week was not broad distribution; it was a targeted release of pressure in a specific pocket of the market while the overall structure remained intact. We also saw some massive upside calls being placed through 2027.  They used the weakness to add.  Thats extremely positive and bullish.  

As we move into this week, we’re also seeing some excellent setups begin to emerge. We already capitalized on a few last week, and now we’re starting to see additional names ignite. We expect an active week ahead, and as we mentioned previously, the early themes for 2026 are beginning to take shape. These cyclical transitions are where we generate our strongest returns—and we plan to press them aggressively, as we do every year.  Be ready and lets have a great week ahead!