December 10, 2025

Markets

Futures are flat heading into a major catalyst: today’s FOMC decision. The tape has been in a slow-motion tug-of-war all week as traders sit on their hands waiting for the final Fed meeting of the year. Consensus firmly expects a third straight 25 bps cut, with futures pricing in an ~87% chance of another trim.

Under the surface, though, FOMC sentiment remains split. Some members are pushing for cuts to cushion a cooling labor market, while others worry that easing too aggressively risks reigniting inflation. This makes today’s statement — and Powell’s press conference — massive. The market will dissect every word.

Meanwhile, we’ve got a stealth rotation unfolding. The Russell 2000 ripped to fresh all-time intraday highs on Tuesday, powered by the prospect of lower rates ahead. Small caps love easing cycles — cheaper borrowing directly drops to the bottom line — and money is clearly starting to flow their way.

Portfolio

It’s FOMC day — stay locked in. We’ve intentionally kept things tight this week, refusing to get chopped up in the engineered, pre-Fed noise. Pattern the last several meetings: the real move comes a day or two after the announcement.

We head into the session with premium setups in TSLL, RIVN, BMNR, and RR. 

A few scenarios we’re watching:

1. Liquidity-Grab Fakeout
We get a downside sweep to trap shorts, then a slingshot to fresh all-time highs. Worst case, QQQ tests 619 → 612, SPX backtests 6750 — and still sets up a classic Santa rally toward 7000 into year-end.

2. Powell Goes Dovish
He leans into labor-market softness, signals comfort with continued cuts, delivers the “don’t-derail-growth” speech. QQQ and SPY rip on the headline, then consolidate, then resume a year-end grind higher.

Bottom line: the market wants higher prices — they just won’t let it unlock until the Fed is out of the way. This week’s price action has been laughably manufactured, and patience has been the superpower. Our positions are holding up beautifully in this environment, and our queue is filling with outright monster setups.

Stay patient. The final catalyst before the 2025 runway opens is on deck. Let’s finish the year strong.