December 4, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures are little changed on Thursday as investors grew more optimistic about a December interest rate cut.

The latest jobs figures from ADP released earlier Wednesday helped lift the 30-stock Dow Industrial Average higher on the day, along with the other two major U.S. stock indexes. The Dow rose more than 400 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended 0.3% and 0.2% higher, respectively.

Investors took the ADP data — which reflected a surprising decline in private payrolls for the month of November — as a further signal that the Federal Reserve could be more inclined to cut its key interest rate at its upcoming Dec. 10 meeting. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a cut next Wednesday, which is significantly higher than rate cut bets just a couple weeks ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Markets will be watching more jobs data Thursday when the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. ET reports initial jobless claims numbers for the week ending Nov. 29. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a slight uptick in filings to 220,000. Also, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will release announced layoff figures for November.

Other significant releases this week come Friday when the Commerce Department releases delayed September data on spending, income and the consumer expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge. The University of Michigan also will release its consumer survey for December.

Portfolio:

We step into this beautiful new trading day holding positions in ONDS, MSTU, AMPX, and BMNR.

One headline we’re loving this morning:
“Hedge funds double down using near-record leverage in quest to boost returns.”

We told you weeks ago that performance chasing was inevitable as funds lagged behind… and now the headlines confirm it. The chase into the end of 2025 is only beginning — and 2026 could open a runway unlike anything we’ve seen in years.

Overnight action was strong across the board, with Asian and European markets surging. U.S. futures held solidly green into the morning.

Traders are now pricing in the possibility that a Fed rate cut could spark a global risk-on rally into year-end — and if that triggers, the upside could be explosive.

And one more headline worth watching closely:
BREAKING: President Trump is preparing high-level talks with China that may determine whether Nvidia can resume selling H200 chips to the region, per FT.

Keep an eye on that!  Be ready today!