November 18, 2025

Markets

Stock futures slipped again Tuesday as tech shares extended their decline, driven by concerns over lofty valuations in AI-related names. Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000, signaling reduced risk appetite among investors.

Nvidia eased about 1% in premarket trading, Palantir dropped 2%, and both Amazon and Microsoft were down more than 1%. Nvidia has already lost 8% this month ahead of its third-quarter earnings due Wednesday after the close. The chipmaker remains at the center of the debate over whether this year’s AI-fueled rally can sustain momentum.

Adding to investor anxiety is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve may not deliver a third rate cut in December. Fed funds futures now price in less than a 50% chance of a cut, down sharply from over 90% just a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are counting on the Fed to support the economy and keep rates low to justify elevated equity valuations. Key catalysts this week include the Fed’s October meeting minutes (Wednesday) and September nonfarm payrolls (Thursday).

Portfolio 

The market is being hit with fear headlines from every angle — crypto volatility, AI valuation worries, and speculation that the Fed may pause rate cuts. But we continue to believe the noise will fade. The Administration has been clear about its stance on rates, and liquidity will ultimately flow back into equities.

The past two weeks have been a roller coaster, but we see this short-term pain for bulls turning into greater pain for bears. Unless critical support levels break in the coming sessions, we remain focused on the broader uptrend.

– QQQ: Support sits at 600, with 590 as a major demand zone. A break below 590 could quickly test 575, which we view as a “load the boat” level. QQQ has been riding a clean rising weekly trendline for months, and this pullback marks its first meaningful test. Buyers will either defend here, or the trend gives way.

– SPY: Key support is 662–660. Holding this zone sets up a ladder higher toward 664–670. A decisive reclaim of 670 would put bulls firmly in control, opening the door to a swift move toward 700. This could be the moment hedge funds, lagging retail returns this year, press hard into year-end.

Our watchlist is heating up. Many names are sitting on pivotal levels — either they break lower or establish a floor for the next leg higher. We expect choppy action into Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow, with the real market direction revealing itself shortly after.

Patience is key. We currently hold AAOI, A, RDW, SOUN, and METU. While the past two weeks have been challenging trading conditions, we believe the tide is turning. Historically, the period from Thanksgiving through year-end has been one of the strongest stretches for us, and we plan to capitalize on it.