August 21, 2025

Markets:

Futures edged lower Thursday as the S&P 500 extended its four-day slide, weighed down by tech weakness and earnings from Walmart.

All eyes now shift to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks Friday at Jackson Hole, where traders hope to get clarity on the path of interest rates. Fed funds futures currently price in nearly an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Minutes from July’s Fed meeting revealed concerns over both the labor market and inflation. While most policymakers felt it was premature to ease, governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented—the first dual dissent since 1993.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU released details on their new trade framework, with the U.S. committing to apply the higher of either its MFN tariff rate or a 15% combined rate on EU goods.

Portfolio:

We head into the session holding only ZMDTF.  

Yesterday played out much like we expected—choppy action, but several names printed strong hammer candles worth noting. SPY dipped below the 20sma before reclaiming it, holding a tight bull channel if the low sticks. QQQ briefly broke its 20sma and nearly tagged the 50sma before bouncing back into its channel. Both indices did their job, leaving room for upside into September as the “hated rally” grinds on.

That said, today could remain muted with Powell’s Jackson Hole speech looming tomorrow. Risk is event-driven, so patience is key. 

Plenty more opportunities will open post-summit. Until then, we patiently wait and then go on attack mode.