August 20, 2025

Markets:

S&P 500 futures edged lower early Wednesday as investors digested a mixed slate of retail earnings while bracing for the Fed’s July meeting minutes this afternoon. At that meeting, the Fed held rates steady, but dissent from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—two voting members—marked the first such dual opposition since 1993.

Markets are also eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks Friday for direction on rate policy. Current Fed funds futures show an ~85% chance of a September rate cut, per CME’s FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported the U.S. may seek equity stakes in Intel and other chipmakers in exchange for CHIPS Act grants—a potential shake-up in how subsidies are structured.

Portfolio:

We head into today with positions in OPEN, TSLL,  and ONDS. These next few sessions are setting the stage for longer-term opportunities—patience is essential.

Yesterday’s action hinged on the 643 pivot. Once that broke, we slipped to 640, then flushed lower. A late-day bounce back to 640 failed to reclaim it, leaving 640 as immediate resistance and 635 as next key support. We’ll need to watch how price and flow evolve this morning for fresh pivots.

Bigger picture: the deeper the pullback before Jackson Hole, the stronger the setup for a rebound. Volume is thin, sentiment is heavy on the bearish side, and that’s exactly where contrarian opportunities often emerge.

VIX stayed tame yesterday, suggesting much of the pressure may already be behind us. Expect chop, but we still like the odds of an inside day.

Stay patient—monster setups are coming from this and NVDA earnings next week!