August 1, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures were under pressure on Friday to kick off August trading as investors weighed stark signs of a weakening economy and President Donald Trump’s modified tariff rates.

The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls expanded by 73,000 last month, well beneath the consensus estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones that called for a 100,000 increase to payrolls. Prior months were significantly revised down. June job growth totaled just 14,000, down from 147,000. The May count came down to 19,000 from 125,000, signaling the labor market has been weakening for a while now.

The numbers increased the odds that the Fed could act sooner than expected to cut rates and prop up the economy, a notion that helped stem stock losses. Traders place the odds of a September rate cut at 63% after the jobs figures, according to CME fed futures trading. That’s a reversal from Wednesday, when the odds plummeted after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank needs to wait and evaluate the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting.

Shares of Amazon tumbled more than 7% after the e-commerce giant provided light operating income guidance for the current quarter. Not all tech news was bad as Apple shares jumped 2% on the back of an earnings and revenue beat.

Portfolio:

We’ve reached the final session of a pivotal week — FOMC and major tech earnings are now behind us. It’s time to digest, reset, and plan forward. We’re encouraged by how this cycle is shaping up. The AI and tech revolution continues to build momentum, and our core thesis remains firmly intact: we’re still in the early innings of what could be a massive runway.

While many are calling for a typical August pullback, we believe that may be a misread in this environment. Yes, we’ll respect any pullback if it comes, but we need confirmation. Our view: SPY likely holds above 600, with any broad pullback potentially finding support around 605. What’s more probable is digestion here followed by an unexpected move higher, potentially beginning next week, before we consolidate ahead of September’s FOMC. That next leg higher could be the strongest yet this year — and the foundation is clearly forming now. It feels a lot like April again.

Next week brings earnings from key sectors beyond mega-cap tech — think software, cybersecurity, and critical AI infrastructure. These are the areas we’re watching closely for new opportunities.

Patience remains key. We were intentionally cautious with our trading this week, choosing to stay selective as the noise cleared. That patience is about to pay off. Not every week is going to be a “monster” — embrace that. The best setups are forming now, and next week may kick off a whole new chapter.  Be ready, especially next week.