May 22, 2025

Markets:

Stocks looked set to extend their weekly losses on Thursday following the passage of a controversial bill in the U.S. House of Representatives. The legislation, which features tax cuts and increased military spending, is raising concerns among investors about ballooning deficits. The bill now heads to the Senate.

Passed along party lines early Thursday, the bill could potentially add nearly $4 trillion to the national debt, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. With inflation risks already elevated due to recently reintroduced Trump-era tariffs, investors fear the bill could further pressure bond markets. As a result, yields spiked — the 30-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.1%, its highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield hovered just below 4.6%.

Rising long-term rates — key benchmarks for consumer borrowing — are beginning to weigh on an economy already contending with the effects of the new tariffs. Investors will also be watching Thursday’s jobless claims data for additional insight into the labor market.

Portfolio:

We remain positioned in LUNR and IONQ.

Price action is approaching key short-term levels. This kind of consolidation is normal — while it may temporarily slow returns, it’s a healthy part of trend development.

We’re watching SPY closely: the 589 level has broken, and we’re now testing 585. A break below 585 could open the door to a move down to 577 to fill the gap. We don’t anticipate a move below 577 unless unexpected negative news hits. On the flip side, a reclaim of 585 could trigger a move back toward 588+ in the near term.

Bears are gaining traction and continue to defend the gap down from Monday — a signal we respect and are tracking carefully.

Patience is key here. We’re in a consolidation phase before what we believe could be the next major move. Both sides of the market are active, and we’re awaiting a confirmed setup. Be ready for updates and a potential new trade alert today.