April 17, 2025

Market:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures edged higher Thursday — the final trading day of the week — as traders looked to recoup some of Wednesday’s steep losses.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.7%. Meanwhile, Dow futures lagged, down 602 points, or 1.5%, dragged lower by a 19% drop in UnitedHealth after it missed earnings expectations.

Wednesday’s session saw a major sell-off, particularly in tech. The Dow dropped nearly 700 points, and the Nasdaq Composite slid over 3%, pushing the index closer to bear market territory.

Nvidia led the tech decline, falling nearly 7% after revealing a $5.5 billion charge tied to U.S. export restrictions on its H20 GPUs to China and other countries. Shares were relatively flat in early Thursday trading.

On a more positive note, shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) rose about 3% pre-market after the company beat Q1 revenue estimates and reaffirmed its full-year outlook.

Portfolio:

Let’s call it like it is — yesterday’s price action during and after the Fed was ridiculous. Volume was extremely low (as it has been all week), yet algos took over and wreaked havoc. The Fed didn’t say anything new or meaningful, yet the market reaction was all noise.

Now, futures are ripping — and it’ll be very telling to see how we close out this week. Keep an eye on TSM. They posted a 60% jump in profits — that’s huge. The only reason the stock didn’t spike 20%? Market hesitancy over Trump’s pending tariff policy. Once that’s clarified — and it will be soon — TSM could easily run $50 in a week. Big moves are coming.

Also, notice this: SPY and QQQ both pushed back above key levels late yesterday — 525 and 443, respectively — despite the heavy Nasdaq selloff. Volume was suspiciously light for a -2% to -3% tech day. That’s a huge tell. Under the surface, markets are positioning for upside.

And then there’s this from Trump today:

“Had a productive call with the President of Mexico yesterday. Met with Japan’s top trade rep as well. All productive. Every nation — including China — wants to meet now. Today, it's Italy.”

Street chatter is heating up — many believe Trump is lining up some big announcements this Easter weekend. It’s got that "resurrection rally" vibe. His comment today suggests he’s setting the stage for a major market-moving moment.

Bottom line: Be patient. The window of opportunity that’s coming will be the best we’ve seen in years.