April 16, 2025

Good morning,

We enter the session holding setups in CONL, USAR, TSLL, and S.  Trying to be super patient here.

The pace of news is relentless right now. NVDA had been on a roll—first clearing the H200 probe, then announcing U.S.-based AI supercomputer production. Technically, it was approaching a key breakout level at 115, with a clear path to 130, backed by strong relative strength yesterday.

Then came the headlines around export curbs and bans. NVDA being used as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China tensions was always a possibility. Let’s not forget—Jensen met with President Trump when these tariffs first started, so it’s likely this scenario had been floated before. It just happened to land at an unfortunate time.

I thought Dan Ives summed it up perfectly this morning:

"This is the first round of this tech boxing match between the U.S. and China, and the Nvidia H20 restriction will be front and center today for tech investors."
He’s absolutely right—companies with major exposure to both markets are going to be used as leverage until one side gives.

On the positive side, everything we’re hearing suggests a deal may be close.  Those are the only two changes for now. We’ve got time here, and if a deal gets announced, NVDA will likely explode higher. The price action supports a quick move above 130 once that happens.

Now that the news is out, we’ll see how the market digests it. Over the past week, we’ve handled headlines extremely well, and under the surface, we’re seeing large blocks of upside volume. Today will be key—how we close, and how we respond to this latest headline.

Don’t forget: tech earnings are coming up, and many believe valuations here are still very attractive. If we can absorb this and move forward, it’s another sign that a floor is forming.