April 3, 2025

Markets Overview

Stock futures plunged Thursday following President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs, starting at 10% and escalating for certain countries. The move heightened fears of a global trade war, adding further strain to an already fragile U.S. economy.

Shares of multinational corporations tumbled in premarket trading. Nike and Apple dropped 11% and 7%, respectively, while major retailers reliant on imports saw steep losses—Five Below sank 16%, Dollar Tree fell 11%, and Gap declined nearly 12%. Tech stocks also suffered in the broad risk-off environment, with Nvidia and Tesla both down 5%.

The White House set a baseline 10% tariff on all countries, effective April 5, with additional levies targeting nations imposing higher duties on U.S. goods to follow.

The S&P 500 had climbed for three consecutive sessions, driven by hopes that Trump would avoid aggressive tariffs that could stall economic growth and exacerbate inflation. However, ongoing tariff concerns have pushed the index into correction territory, shedding over 10% from its recent peak. The uncertainty is now reflected in weakening economic data, fueling recession fears and pressuring stocks further.

Portfolio

As of this morning, we're essentially back to Monday’s premarket levels. The market's sharp shift from optimism to extreme negativity during the tariff announcement was dramatic but not entirely unexpected. As we've reiterated for months, SPY 550 remains our key support level—a break and hold below puts 538 in play, with potential downside extending to 523. Meanwhile, QQQ is testing Monday’s lows, with 455 acting as a critical level.

Yesterday, we locked in strong return with TSLL.  We enter today holding three position; CRWV, MSTU, and NVDL. Given that tech was the first sector to sell off in February, we expect a strong rebound into Q2 earnings in two weeks.

For today's open, we’re adjusting stops on NVDL to 33.00 and MSTU to 5.00, letting the market stabilize before making further moves. If key levels hold, we may add puts on select setups; otherwise, we'll look for value trades heading into month-end. 

Stay patient and don’t overthink—this is the kind of price action that produces some of the best short-term setups. Let the market open and unfold before reacting. A red-to-green reversal or a positive close for the week wouldn’t be surprising.

We've outlined the trend lines—now it's about waiting for confirmation and executing accordingly. Remember, stocks that were heavily bought at much higher levels are now presenting a generational opportunity.

The AI-driven tech revolution isn’t over—it’s still in early stages. We cannot wait for that chase to begin again when folks realize that.