April 2, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures slipped Wednesday as Wall Street braced for the expected rollout of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers on Tuesday that Wednesday’s duties will serve as a “cap,” where the tariffs that are announced will be the highest amount set, Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla. revealed to CNBC’s Emily Wilkins. That will give countries the opportunity to take steps to bring the tariff amount down.

According to The Washington Post, which cited three sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is also considering imposing tariffs of roughly 20% on most imports coming into the country. However, the report said that advisors cautioned that several options are still on the table.

Stocks have come under pressure as uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs has spurred recent market volatility, with the broad market index down five out of the past six weeks. However, some investors think the sell-off is overdone.

Trump and his team had not reached a firm decision on the tariff plans as of meetings on Tuesday, the report said. Some of the options being considered include country-by-country “reciprocal” tariffs and a tiered system where countries would be grouped together.

Also on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump and his advisers were still “perfecting” the new policy, according to NBC News.

Portfolio:

Strong trend day yesterday for the markets and we enter todays "Liberation Day" holding only one setup in NVDL.  MOnster return booked yesterday with CoreWeave.  Once todays event passes, expect sentiment and market behavior to change. As we state yesterday, Once again, the SPY held firm at the 550 level, reinforcing a key support zone. Unless that level breaks and holds, it’s tough to argue for a bearish case in this market. While we remain prepared to trade from the short side if necessary, a confirmed break below 550 is needed before considering that scenario. Throughout Q1, algos reacted sharply to headlines, triggering massive swings. However, we anticipate a shift in Q2, where fundamentals will play a larger role. Our long-term members know our stance well—we’ve always believed that the Federal Reserve is the ultimate driver of bull and bear markets through its interest rate decisions. Government policies can cause temporary but dramatic market disruptions. In rare cases, extreme uncertainty can fuel a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading to deeper declines. However, unless the Fed abruptly reverses course and raises rates again, we believe the current market correction—despite its volatility—will be short-lived. Within a matter of weeks, the market should see a massive price shift, setting the stage for a monster move. 

Be ready today and stay patient.