March 31, 2025

Markets:
U.S. stock futures declined Monday as traders braced for "Liberation Day" and awaited clarity on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

A series of previously announced tariffs from the Trump administration are set to take effect Wednesday—dubbed “Liberation Day” by the president—including a 25% levy on all cars not manufactured in the United States. Additionally, Trump is expected to unveil his strategy for reciprocal duties targeting nations that impose tariffs on U.S. imports.

Uncertainty surrounding these policies weighed on equities late last week, with stocks closing lower on Friday to end the final full trading week of March. Over the weekend, Trump did little to ease market concerns, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that he had recently urged his advisors to take a more aggressive stance on tariffs. In a Saturday interview with NBC News, Trump stated he "couldn’t care less" if foreign automakers raise prices in response to the new duties.

Monday marks the final trading day of what has been a volatile month and quarter for Wall Street. The S&P 500 briefly entered correction territory in March after hitting a record high in February, closing Friday 9.2% below its all-time peak.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on a packed week of economic data, including the highly anticipated March jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, April 4.

Portfolio:
We head into today’s session with two positions in QUBT and S, keeping our exposure light. The 550 level on SPY remains our key marker.

This week presents a critical inflection point—end-of-quarter positioning, a flood of headline risk from tariffs, and the start of a new quarter all combine for a potential major move in the market. In a news-driven environment like this, anything is possible.

At some point, the market will digest these policy shifts and find a bottom—possibly even staging a short-term bounce. Historically, we've seen similar corrections lead to setups for a reversal, drawing comparisons to:

SPX pullback from Aug/Sept 2024

SPX pullback from April/May 2024

SPX pullback from Aug/Sept 2023

For bulls, this is a make-or-break week. If the market is going to rebound, this would be the perfect setup—especially post-“Liberation Day.” Historically, these types of events tend to trigger the opposite reaction once uncertainty clears.

Frankly, a premarket flush is exactly what’s needed right now—get it over with, establish a solid bottom, and move forward.

Be ready today—this is a monster week in play. The market will either crack lower, opening the door for short-side trades, or establish a firm base at 550 for a strong rebound.