February 24, 2025

Markets

Stock market futures edged higher early Monday as Wall Street aimed to recover from last week’s late slide.

The downturn on Thursday and Friday pushed major indexes into the red for the week. The Dow dropped 2.51%, marking its worst weekly performance since October, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined 1.66% and 2.51%, respectively. Friday alone saw the Dow tumble over 700 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shedding 1.7% and 2.2%.

These declines followed concerning economic data from February. The U.S. services sector showed contraction based on Purchasing Managers’ Index figures, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in weaker than expected.

Looking ahead, investors are set to digest key earnings and economic reports. Home Depot and Lowe’s will report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, offering insight into consumer spending. However, the biggest event of the week could be Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday evening, as the AI-linked chip giant remains one of the market’s most influential stocks.

This will be Nvidia’s first earnings release since the emergence of China’s DeepSeek large language model, which has raised questions about the sustainability of the AI trade.

Portfolio

Happy Monday! We have a monster week ahead, headlined by Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.

Let’s be clear—whatever narrative they try to spin about Friday’s selloff, the reality is simple: OPEX. The VIX was red for most of the day, and then, right on cue, we got a late-afternoon headline about a new COVID strain in China. That’s when the floodgates opened. But let’s be real—it felt more mechanical and synthetic than anything.

At this point, I don’t care too much about where we stand until Thursday, after we’ve processed Nvidia’s earnings, the AI theme, and CAPEX updates. Our community has had a strong start to 2025, and the overall trend remains intact. We’ll stay patient through NVDA earnings, then attack accordingly—whether that means taking advantage of a short-term dip or riding the next leg higher. Technically, the bull trend is far from broken. Ignore the noise. Flow and trend lines matter most.

Do we expect SPY/QQQ to recover everything today from Friday? No. But if it does, that’s gold—especially heading into NVDA’s report. Days like Friday may be tough, but they create the biggest opportunities. History shows that these setups lead to strong runs in the following weeks. Stay patient. The last thing we want is a head fake today when better prices might be available tomorrow. We’re watching closely at the open.

We enter the session holding no open positions. We will start the week fresh and ready to attack. Stay patient there especially early on.