February 18, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures rose early Tuesday to start out a shortened trading week, as investors kept an eye on Washington for developments on the global trade front.

Wall Street is coming off a winning week for the major averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 0.6% last week, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.6%.

Much of last week’s advance came Thursday after President Donald Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs on countries with levies on U.S. goods soothed investors who worried they would be more stringent.

Stocks have been choppy to start the year but, even with ongoing concerns around trade and inflation, a look at the major averages show that they are not too far off their recent highs as investors scan for a catalyst for the next leg higher.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be in the spotlight this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that the central bank is in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, but any clarity on the path of monetary policy will be welcomed by investors. Markets were last pricing in roughly one or two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

Portfolio:

We enter the new trading week holding setups in TSLL, INTC, and S. The Queue is showing so much force and will be interesting to see how the market behaves today with breakouts confirming / developing with Q's and SPY.  Many told us there was no way this was happening a few weeks ago…well here we are!  This is just beginning of the bigger move to come along with the chase for performance before we have an opportunity to switch gears.  

For this week, you would have to assume / anticipate that the melt-up remains intact, but a short-term pullback into OPEX is likely (this Friday). We use that dip as a buying opportunity into March.  Early game plan.  Be ready today.