December 6, 2024

Markets:

Stock futures rose after November jobs data came in slightly better than expected on Friday, but not so hot as to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting rates again later this month.

The November labor report, released on Friday morning, revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, above the Dow Jones estimate of 214,000 and marking a huge hike from October’s gain of just 12,000. The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.2%, as expected. This report could give investors insight into the Federal Reserve’s next policy move later this month.

Given the continued strength of the U.S. economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously said that policymakers don’t need to be “in a hurry to lower rates.”

Stocks closed Thursday’s session lower, retreating from records the major indexes hit in the previous session. Week to date, the S&P 500 is up 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 2.5%. The 30-stock Dow is down 0.3% in the period.

Portfolio:

We were pretty focused on the jobs data this morning. The importance of inline data keeps the current rally intact, with December rate cuts still on track.  This allows our runway to continue to build and technically allows us to possibly test 6030 on the SPY sooner rather than later.  If we had a really strong job number, it could signal the Fed might pause rate cuts the market to head lower short term.

600 is a great floor technically right now on the SPY. The next hurdle for SPY will be around 611.  But we do believe we will test that 6030/6040 range soon enough.  QQQ is just a monster that continues to build and it only brings further strength to next years outlook with tech leading the way due to AI and the tech revolution taking place. 

Our current holdings of TEVA, IREN, and HOOD require no changes.  Really strong week for us and want to continue to position ourselves for the remainder of the month and the move to come.