August 29, 2024

Markets:

Stock futures rose Thursday, as investors looked to recover from declines seen in the previous session. Wall Street also appeared to shake off a post-earnings decline in Nvidia.

Nvidia shares were down 3% after posting its latest earnings Wednesday afternoon. In its fiscal second quarter, the AI chipmaker exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines, and issued a rosy current-quarter sales outlook.

Wall Street is coming off a losing session after a slump in Nvidia shares ahead of the company’s earnings results weighed on the major averages. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
dropped 1.12%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The 30-stock Dow slid about 159 points, or 0.39%.

Those moves highlight the growing significance of Nvidia to the broader market. The semiconductor company, which passed the $3 trillion market cap this year to briefly become the world’s most valuable public company, now accounts for roughly 7% of the S&P 500.

Economic data released Thursday lent support to the stock market. Weekly jobless claims fell from the prior week, further easing recession concerns. In addition, second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher to 3% growth from an initial 2.8% rate.

Portfolio:

What an absolutely wild 14 hours or so.  We have Gaps everywhere and we love it!  Before we get into NVDA and our thoughts we want to provide an update on our current holdings; RIOT, SIRI, MARA, NIO, ZETA, and TSLL and that no changes are needed.

NVDA.  If you think it's earnings and outlook are disappointing – you are completely missing what part of the cycle we are in.  The AI and Tech revolution are just beginning!  I can care less what the reaction is right now but I do appreciate all the upgrades coming out this morning with monster price points.  

SOXL watch above $37 today. Massive pre market recovery from last nights $33 afterhours lows. Now trading back near the flat line.  This has the look to get super explosive to the upside.  Which means, the semi's are running!  Should NVDA dare break back above the 126 level today or tomorrow, it can see 135 – 140 fast!  Watching this opportunity closely as well.

SMH, massive upside positioning for the chip sector into end of year and also start of 2025.  December timeframe is typically super bullish for the semi sector.  This is historically it's "rough" part of the year.  Seeing this type of positioning AFTER the run they are on is extremely bullish once again.

SPY, loved all the bears calling for a market top yet once again when it hit 554.  Amazes us but I think it's better to call it, a Higher Low!  SPY now trading at 560 and building.  The longer we base here (554 – 562 level) the higher the explosion we will have.

Now, last piece to this we are watching, volume!  It was terrible once again yesterday.  Assuming the same today as traders watch for NVDA response but also PCE tomorrow.  But it goes into the seasonality of the period we are in for the calendar.