March 25, 2024

Markets:

Stock futures were slightly lower Monday morning to start March’s last—and shortened—trading week.

The market is on track for its fifth consecutive month of gains, with the major U.S. stock benchmarks crossing new all-time closing high levels last week. The S&P 500 added roughly 2.3% last week, while the Dow gained just under 2% for its best week since December, nearing the 40,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, jumped about 2.9% during the period.

These gains were fueled by the Federal Reserve’s latest remarks that maintained central bankers’ rate-cutting timeline for this year, as well as investors’ ongoing enthusiasm for tech stocks amid the AI-powered rally. Overall investor sentiment remains above its historical average, according to the latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey, reflecting persistent market optimism. Still, some investors fear the potential impact of an overextended rally and higher-for-longer interest rates.

This week, investors will gain further insight about the path of inflation from the February personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released Friday morning. The market’s reaction will be determined on the following Monday given the Good Friday holiday.

Portfolio:

We enter this shortened trading week and also the last week of Q1 holding setups in IONQ, TSLL, IBIT, and PATH. Nice target hit on NVDL on Friday.  This week is extremely intriguing, not just due to a few data points set to be released but how we navigate the end of Q1 and the chase for performance holding stocks into Q2.  This is always the cycle we see and curious to see if the trend continues here.  We also expect large lots to begin to trigger with election cycle theme trades.  These trades should begin to hit our radar in Q2 and we absolutely love those opportunities and what they present to us.  

So, shortened holiday trading week.  End of Q1 navigation, could see some backfilling action.  PCE and Powell end of the week.  Bitcoin trying to move to new highs with halving coming in April.  AI cycle just continues to strengthen.  Unless we break below 5233 on the S&P, technically, monster run way continues to develop and the hated rally will ignite further.  Need small caps to begin to ignite as well and this really could take off.  

Be ready, the plan is being laid out and we will attack it.  Just stay patient here and do not press.  The opportunities that will be presented to us shortly will be absiolutely terrific.  Just understand whats in play this week and the potential back and forther we might see this week. Be ready.