April 10, 2023

Markets:

U.S equity futures held steady Monday, as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season.

On Thursday, the major averages rose to end a holiday-shortened trading week. However, only the Dow notched a weekly gain of 0.6% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted weekly losses, ending lower by 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

The market was volatile as economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed stock futures and Treasury yields higher. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for Good Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, about in line with the Dow Jones estimate of 238,000, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment fell to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold from the previous month at 3.6%.

Investors are in for a busy week of economic data, including the latest consumer price index and producer price index data – due out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively – which will be key in determining if or when the Fed will pause or put an end to its rate hiking campaign.

Wall Street is preparing for a big earnings season, as Delta Air Lines and major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are set to report this week.

Portfolio:

We enter the new trading week holding setups in CLF, AG, and PLTR.  CTA is closer to chase mode, not much stretched short term, vix 10-year highs with a move lower, this week we'll have inflation data, FOMC minutes, and banks begin earnings this Friday. ES getting closer to those bigger hurdles 4200/4350. As we been stating, should we break and hold 4200 then 4350 comes quickly. Break and hold there, it's potential monster rally ahead. But we respect the short side and ready to trade both sides. The pain trade right now is Long. Too many are short and hate this rally and continues to try and fade it. Just tune into CNBC or scroll through a few other media website pages. The next few weeks should provide great insight. Let's continue to expand on this strong start to 2023. Be patient this week!